Thursday, July 18, 2024
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By: Paul Centopani
June 18, 2024 - 16 min read
Will Interest Rates Drop in July 2024? | Mortgage Rates Forecast (themortgagereports.com)
Mortgage rate forecast for next week (June 17-21)
Mortgage interest rates decreased for the second straight week.
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage (FRM) dipped from 6.99% on June 6 to 6.95% on June 13, according to Freddie Mac.
“Mortgage rates continued to fall back this week as incoming data suggests the economy is cooling to a more sustainable level of growth,” said Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac.
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In this article (Skip to...)
· Will rates go down in July?
· 90-day forecast
· Expert rate predictions
· Mortgage rate trends
· Rates by loan type
· Mortgage strategies for July
· Mortgage rates FAQ
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Will mortgage rates go down in July?
Mortgage rates fluctuated significantly in 2023, with the average 30-year fixed rate going as low as 6.09% on Feb. 2 and as high as 7.79% on Oct. 26, according to Freddie Mac.
Find your lowest mortgage rate. Start here (Jun 20th, 2024)
The range can be largely attributed to the Federal Reserve’s ongoing fight against inflation, juxtaposed with uncertainty in the banking sector sparked by Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse. However, with duress permeating the financial market and the fallout from U.S. debt ceiling talks, the Fed may continue making hikes to bring interest rates down.
With the economy possibly heading into a recession, we may have already seen the peak of this rate cycle. Of course, interest rates are notoriously volatile and could tick back up on any given week.
Experts from CoreLogic, First American, CJ Patrick and others weigh in on whether 30-year mortgage rates will climb, fall, or level off in July.
Expert mortgage rate predictions for July
Ralph DiBugnara, president at Home Qualified
Prediction: Rates will moderate
“The Fed signaled that they are still on target to cut rates once this year. That reassured some of the market of what has been said previously. With that, rates came back down some to where they were in May after the Fed first mentioned a cut. I believe that rates will stay steady where they are averaging now and in July we will see an average 30-year fixed rate of 7% and 15-year fixed at 6.5%.”
Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com
Prediction: Rates will moderate
“The Fed didn’t do mortgage rates any favors in its June meeting with the economic projections suggesting just one rate cut is now expected in 2024 versus three as recently as March. However, flat consumer price inflation in May and a drop in producer prices suggest that the Fed’s policy is having its intended effect.
This has two likely consequences for mortgage rates in July. First, these data help alleviate the upward pressure that we saw on mortgage rates in the spring when inflation was picking up. Second, while the 2% inflation target isn’t changed, the May progress can change the way investors react to the next inflation reading in July. Another low inflation reading could signal a trend, and help rates build on recent lower momentum, but a higher than expected reading would cause rates to climb.
Put another way, inflation is likely to be the number one friend or foe for home shoppers and those hoping to refinance in the month ahead. Fortunately home shoppers are seeing other market advantages with active listings climbing nationwide. Some markets are seeing greater growth in the number of homes for sale while other markets continue to be relatively competitive.”
Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American
Prediction: Rates will moderate
“The FOMC will hold off on making any changes to the federal funds rate until they see more evidence of inflation making significant and sustained progress toward the Fed’s target, or there’s an economic downturn or worrisome weakness in the labor market. Sticky inflation and the Federal Reserve’s ‘higher-for-longer’ stance is likely to keep mortgage rates at an elevated and bounded range over the near term.”
Rick Sharga, CEO at CJ Patrick Company
Prediction: Rates will moderate
“The announcement by the Federal Reserve that there will likely be only one cut to the Fed Funds Rate this year — and late in the year at that — increases the probability that interest rates for 30-year fixed rate mortgages will remain in a narrow band between 7.0-7.5% through July, and probably throughout most of 2024. There’s a possibility that rates could dip slightly below that if yields on the 10-year Treasury continue their recent downward trajectory, but that doesn’t seem like the most likely scenario.”
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Mortgage interest rates forecast next 90 days
As inflation ran rampant in 2022, the Federal Reserve took action to bring it down and that led to the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage spiking in 2023.
With inflation gradually cooling, the Fed adjusted its policies with skipped hikes and cuts are expected this year. Additionally, the economy showing signs of slowing has many experts believing mortgage interest rates will gradually descend in 2024.
Find your lowest mortgage rate. Start here (Jun 20th, 2024)
Of course, rates could rise on any given week or if another global event causes widespread uncertainty in the economy.
Mortgage rate predictions for 2024
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.95% as of June 13, according to Freddie Mac. Four of the five major housing authorities we looked at project 2024’s third quarter average to finish below that.
The Mortgage Bankers Association and National Association of Realtors sit at the low end of the group, predicting the average 30-year fixed interest rate to settle at 6.7% for Q3. Meanwhile, Fannie Mae had the highest forecast of 7.1%.
Housing Authority
30-Year Mortgage Rate Forecast (Q2 2024)
Mortgage Bankers Association
6.70%
National Association of Realtors
6.70%
Wells Fargo
6.75%
National Association of Home Builders
6.85%
Fannie Mae
7.10%
Average Prediction
6.82%
Current mortgage interest rate trends
Mortgage rates decreased for the second straight week, staying below the 7% marker.
The average 30-year fixed rate declined from 6.99% on June 6 to 6.95% on June 13. The average 15-year fixed mortgage rate fell further, going from 6.29% to 6.17%.
Get started shopping for mortgage rates (Jun 20th, 2024)
Month
Average 30-Year Fixed Rate
May 2023
6.43%
June 2023
6.71%
July 2023
6.84%
August 2023
7.07%
September 2023
7.20%
October 2023
7.62%
November 2023
7.44%
December 2023
6.82%
January 2024
6.64%
February 2024
6.78%
March 2024
6.82%
April 2024
6.99%
May 2024
7.06%
Source: Freddie Mac
After hitting record-low territory in 2020 and 2021, mortgage rates climbed to a 23-year high in 2023. Many experts and industry authorities believe they will follow a downward trajectory into 2024. Whatever happens, interest rates are still below historical averages.
Dating back to April 1971, the fixed 30-year interest rate averaged around 7.8%, according to Freddie Mac. So if you haven’t locked a rate yet, don’t lose too much sleep over it. You can still get a good deal, historically speaking — especially if you’re a borrower with strong credit.
Just make sure you shop around to find the best lender and lowest rate for your unique situation.
Compare Lenders For June:
Sort byLoan VolumeLender Ratings
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Our Score
4.7
Loan Volume (2023): 288,558
Find a simple mortgage that works for you
· Get personalized solutions for your goals
· Unique support for first time buyers
· Discover multiple refinance options
· Turn home equity you’ve earned into cash
Get RatesRead review
Our Score
4.7
Loan Volume (2023): 125,293
America’s #1 VA Lender
· More Veterans chose Veterans United than any other VA Lender in FY2023 (According to VA Lender Statistics)
· Buy with 0% down when you qualify for a VA Loan
· Representatives available 24/7
· Over 300,000 verified 5-star reviews
Get RatesRead review
Our Score
4.0
Loan Volume (2023): 65,388
Make your home's equity work harder for you
· From quote to close in as little as 3 weeks
· Competitive rates
· Exceptional customer service
Get RatesRead review
Source: Lender Loan Volume from 2023 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data via CFPB.
Mortgage rate trends by loan type
Many mortgage shoppers don’t realize there are different types of rates in today’s mortgage market. But this knowledge can help home buyers and refinancing households find the best value for their situation.
Find your lowest mortgage rate. Start here (Jun 20th, 2024)
Which mortgage loan is best?
The best mortgage for you depends on your financial situation and your goals.
For instance, if you want to buy a high-priced home and you have great credit, a jumbo loan is your best bet. Jumbo mortgages allow loan amounts above conforming loan limits, which max out at $766,550 in most parts of the U.S.
On the other hand, if you’re a veteran or service member, a VA loan is almost always the right choice. VA loans are backed by the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs. They provide ultra-low rates and never charge private mortgage insurance (PMI). But you need an eligible service history to qualify.
Conforming loans and FHA loans (those backed by the Federal Housing Administration) are great low-down-payment options.
Conforming loans allow as little as 3% down with FICO scores starting at 620. FHA loans are even more lenient about credit; home buyers can often qualify with a score of 580 or higher, and a less-than-perfect credit history might not disqualify you.
Finally, consider a USDA loan if you want to buy or refinance real estate in a rural area. USDA loans have below-market rates — similar to VA — and reduced mortgage insurance costs. The catch? You need to live in a ‘rural’ area and have moderate or low income to be USDA-eligible.
Mortgage rate strategies for July 2024
Mortgage rates continue to display their famous volatility in 2024. Anticipated Fed cuts provide hope for optimism, but ongoing inflation battles keep driving growth.
Find your lowest mortgage rate. Start here (Jun 20th, 2024)
The central bank held off on a rate hike in its past seven meetings, preferring to see if the economy would keep cooling organically. At the most recent meeting in June, the FOMC projected cuts starting as early as July. As always, the committee said it would adjust its policies as necessary — which could mean additional hikes or possibly none at all.
Here are just a few strategies to keep in mind if you’re mortgage shopping in the coming months.
Be ready to move quickly
Indecision can lead to failure or missed opportunities. That holds true in home buying as well.
Although the housing market is becoming more balanced than the recent past, it still favors sellers. Prospective borrowers should take the lessons learned from the last few years and apply them now even though conditions are less extreme.
“Taking too long to decide to make an offer can lead to paying more for the home at best and at worst to losing out on it entirely. Buyers should get pre-approved (not pre-qualified) for their mortgage, so that the seller has some certainty about the deal closing. And be ready to close quickly — a long escrow period will put you at a disadvantage.
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