Thursday, July 25, 2024
By: Ralph dibugnara
Written By
Aly J. Yale
https://www.wsj.com/buyside/personal-finance/mortgage/mortgage-rates
If you’re financing a home with a mortgage, ensuring you get the best possible rate is one of the smartest financial moves you can make.
While it takes some legwork, the pay off is hard to argue with. Shaving even a fraction of a point from your rate can save you hundreds of dollars each month and tens of thousands over the life of the loan.
For example, with a $400,000 mortgage, dropping from a 7% to a 6.5% rate would save you almost $50,000 in interest over a 30-year term—roughly enough to pay for a year of private college.
Mortgage rates change constantly—and differ across mortgage companies. Here’s how to take advantage of those facts, compare current mortgage rates and get the best deal.
Current mortgage rates: How high are average mortgage rates right now?
Mortgage rates ping-ponged in May, starting at 7.22%, falling to 6.94%, and then finishing the month at 7.03%.
“After a reduction in rates in mid-May—based on comments from the Fed that inflation was slowing—they ticked up some over the last half of the month,” says Ralph DiBugnara, senior vice president at Cardinal Financial. This, DiBugnara says, has become a pattern: “We have had weeks of down rates, and then news will come out that inflation is still too high, and they will go back the other way.”
To be clear: Inflation doesn’t outright determine where mortgage rates head, but the Federal Reserve is closely watching prices to determine the path of interest rates. Mortgage rates tend to follow the trajectory set by the Fed.
It’s not all bad news, though: While rates inched up a bit toward the end of May, the average 30-year mortgage rate is still lower than it was a few weeks ago. The decline has led to a bump in refinancing activity, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. In the last week of the month, applications to refinance a loan were up 12% compared to a year ago.
Weekly mortgage rates
WEEK ENDING
AVERAGE 30-YEAR FIXED RATE
AVERAGE 15-YEAR FIXED RATE
March 28, 2024
6.79%
6.11%
Mar. 21, 2024
6.87%
6.21%
Mar. 13, 2024
6.74%
6.16%
Mar. 7, 2024
6.88%
6.22%
Feb. 29, 2024
6.94%
6.26%
Freddie Mac
Where are mortgage rates headed?
Where mortgage rates head next depends a lot on upcoming Fed moves—and, “Inflation, inflation, inflation,” says Robert J. Smith, head of real estate at lending platform Advisor Credit Exchange. “Until the Federal Reserve can prove to the markets that inflation is under—and remains under—control, inflation will continue to have a magnified impact.”
While the central bank has said there are no plans to raise rates again soon, it has also noted it may need to hold rates high to reach its goal of 2% inflation and won’t commit to a timeline to begin cutting rates. (Inflation did fall slightly in April, though it still clocked in at 3.4%—above that ultimate goal)
The Fed meets next in mid-June, but forecasts show the central bank is most likely to keep rates as-is this time around—just as it has at its last several meetings.
“If there are any rate cuts [this year], I believe that maybe we see one in the fourth quarter,” DiBugnara says. “If inflation keeps its slow crawl back to normal levels, we should see a lower rate toward 6% sometime in early 2025.”
Industry groups largely agree. Both MBA and mortgage purchaser Fannie Mae are currently predicting a 6.7% average rate in the first quarter of 2025.
AVERAGE RATE
DATE
Current rate
6.79%
March 28, 2024
This time last year
6.32%
March 30, 2023
Highest point in last decade
7.79%
Oct. 26, 2023
All-time high
18.53%
Oct. 16, 1981
All-time low
2.65%
Jan 7, 2021
Freddie Mac
How are mortgage rates set?
While the Fed influences mortgage rates, it is only one piece of the puzzle. Other external factors play a role, too—as do the details of your financial situation and loan choice.
Here’s what you need to know about what determines your mortgage rate.
External factors
The overall state of the economy is a big contributor to the path of mortgage rates. When the economy is strong, rates tend to be higher. When the economy sputters, rates drop.
“Interest rates often will rise or fall based on the strength of the economy, and ironically, bad news can be good news for lower interest rates,” says Bill Banfield, an executive at lender Rocket Mortgage.
This is due in part to how economic conditions impact investment activity. When there are geopolitical concerns or the economy is wavering, investors tend to flock to safer investments—which include things such as Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This pushes the yields on those securities down (yields fall when bond prices rise), taking mortgage rates down with them.
“When there is high demand for mortgage-backed securities, the prices of those MBS increase, which in turn can lower mortgage interest rates,” says Tanya Blanchard, founder of mortgage brokerage Madison Chase Capital Advisors. “This is because investors are willing to accept lower returns on their investments when the prices of MBS are high.”
Finally, inflation factors in, too—and not just because of the Fed reaction. It also increases the costs for lenders to originate loans, which drives their prices higher as well.
Personal factors
Your personal finances will factor into your interest rate as well. First, there’s your credit score. Mortgage lenders use this number to gauge your risk as a borrower—or how likely you are to default on your loan. The lower your score, the higher the rate you’ll need to pay to compensate for the perceived risk.
“Credit score is a very important consideration when applying for a mortgage,” Banfield says. “If someone has a proven track record of being responsible with their finances, they’ll be more likely to get a mortgage and a better rate.”
The size of your down payment is important, too. A larger down payment means you have more to lose, which hopefully discourages you from defaulting. Smaller down payments, on the other hand, mean more risk for the lender and higher rates for you as a result.
Loan-specific factors
Last but not least, the type of mortgage loan you choose will also influence your rate. Loans backed by the government, such as Federal Housing Administration-backed FHA loans and Veterans Affairs-backed VA loans, tend to have lower rates than conventional or jumbo loans since they come with the federal government’s protection. Shorter-term loans (15 years, for example) also have lower rates than longer-term ones (30 years).
As Goodwin explains, “While a shorter-term loan will come with a higher monthly payment, it could save you thousands on interest in the long run.”
How, when and why to compare mortgage rates from different lenders
Because every lender has different overhead costs, operating capacities and appetite for risk, mortgage rates can vary significantly from one company to the next. That’s why it’s important to consider several lenders before choosing where to get your loan.
Freddie Mac recommends getting at least four quotes (it could save you an average of $1,200 a year, apparently). Just make sure you’re not only going by the rates a lender advertises on their website or on third-party sites.
“Looking at advertised rates alone is not a good way to shop around,” Goodwin says. “Lenders typically display the lowest rates they offer as a headline to attract leads, but the actual rate you may be offered can vary dramatically depending on your own financial situation and the kind of loan you’re looking for.”
Many advertised rates also include mortgage points—meaning you would need to pay an extra upfront fee to snag it.
To get a rate that is truly a reflection of what you would pay as a borrower, you need to apply for preapproval. You’ll have to fill out an application and agree to a credit check for this. Once you’re done, you’ll get a loan estimate that will detail the total loan amount you are likely to qualify for, plus your interest rate and expected closing costs—or the fees required to originate, underwrite and close on your loan. Be sure to look at the APR, too—the annual percentage rate. This reflects the total annual cost of the loan, considering both your rate and any fees.
Be warned, though: The rates you’re quoted aren’t guaranteed until you lock your rate. A rate lock guarantees your interest rate for a set period—usually only 30 to 60 days, depending on the lender. You’ll typically do this once you’ve found a home and have a contract in place.
How to calculate your mortgage costs
Comparing mortgage offers might seem tedious, but financially, it’s usually worthwhile. Even a small change in rate can have a big impact on your monthly payment and long-term interest costs.
You can use a mortgage calculator to break down the exact costs or use your loan estimate. This should detail your monthly payment, your interest rate and your total interest paid in five years.
See the difference that incremental rate changes can make on the cost of a 30-year, $400,000 home loan below:
RATE
MONTHLY PAYMENT
INTEREST OVER 30 YEARS
5%
$2,147
$373,023
5.25%
$2,208
$395,173
5.50%
$2,271
$417,616
5.75%
$2,334
$440,344
6%
$2,398
$463,352
6.25%
$2,462
$486,632
6.50%
$2,528
$510,177
6.75%
$2,594
$533,981
7%
$2,661
$558,035
Keep in mind that most mortgage loans are amortized, meaning the total costs are calculated and then paid in even payments across the loan term. With these loans, you’ll pay more interest upfront and less toward the end of the term. For example, your first payment at 6% would see $2,000 go toward interest, while your final payment would have just $11.93.
“At the beginning of the loan term, the majority of the monthly payment will go toward interest,” says Colleen Bara, a lending executive with Key Bank. “As the loan is paid down, more of the monthly payment is allocated toward the pay-down of the principal balance.”
This means if you sell your home quickly after taking out your loan, you likely won’t have paid down your balance much—and may not make much from the home, profit-wise. If this is a concern, making an extra payment each year you’re in the house can help.
“Make one extra principal payment yearly and you can shave off approximately seven years of interest,” Blanchard says.
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